Prediction Analysis of Buled Bread Production Using Holt's Exponential Smoothing

  • Heru Budianto Universitas Kuningan
  • Erlan Darmawan Universitas Kuningan
  • Rio Andriyat Krisdiawan Kuningan University
  • Yasir Maulana Kuningan University
DOI: https://doi.org/10.61242/ijabo.24.415
Keywords: Time series data, Holt's exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Buled Bread

Abstract

This research aim to Analysis of Buled Bread Production Using Holt's Exponential Smoothing. The number of loaves produced by Buled bread still uses estimates, causing the number of loaves produced to be excessive. The excess number of loaves produced increases production costs, which can cause losses. The method broadcast in forecasting is Holt's exponential smoothing because the data displayed shows an increasing trend that is not affected by the season. The calculation process uses Microsoft Excel and add-ins. The results of the calculation produce a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 3.58% so that it can be used to forecast production data in the following month. The value of α = 0.8808 and the value of β = 0.042 are the best values ​​based on calculations using the Solver Add-in. Based on these parameter values, predictive data is produced for each week in the following month.

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Published
2024-09-19
How to Cite
Budianto, H., Darmawan, E., Krisdiawan, R. A., & Maulana, Y. (2024). Prediction Analysis of Buled Bread Production Using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing . International Journal Administration, Business & Organization, 5(4), 52-61. https://doi.org/10.61242/ijabo.24.415
Issue
Vol. 5 No. 4 (2024): IJABO
Section
Research Articles

Copyright (c) 2024 Heru Budianto; Erlan Darmawan; Rio Andriyat Krisdiawan, Yasir Maulana

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